The Odd Stray wrote:
> On 23 Oct 2006 15:25:28 -0700, "Michael" <spoonermichael@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
>
> wrote:
>
> >The Odd Stray wrote:
> >> On 20 Oct 2006 12:10:50 -0700, "Michael" <spoonermichael@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
>
> >> wrote:
>
> >> In SoCal, it's cra****n' and burning' The homeowners just haven't
yet
> >> found out :-(
> >
> >Frankly I don't believe current sales in the SD backcountry are
> >terribly relevant to the SD real estate picture in the main and
> >represent only a fraction of total sales anyway.. Skyrocketing oil
> >prices have sparked a dramatic downturn in sales of homes where
> >prospective homeowners face having a long and therefore very expensive
> >commute. OTOH with the current glut of oil worldwide and corresponding
> >falling fuel prices it is possible that the market may recover somewhat
> >in the sticks, depending on how low fuel prices remain relatively low.
> >Typically country property is the last to recover from even a minor
> >funk in the housing market. So what I'm saying is that with the current
> >gentle drop-off in the SD urban housing prices, since it's much worse
> >in the backcountry, now is FS the time to buy so go for it!
> >
> >Or, is this person you talked to referring to two vs. 40 K sales in the
> >market in general? If so these sales figures sound a bit, or should I
> >say massively overstated. Two people in my rather small office alone
> >have sold their homes in the past month or so, soooooooooo I dunno?
> >Guess I need to do my own research. Could a single person really deal
> >with 40K real estate transactions even in a year? Hmmmm?
>
> The numbers were for her office, with 30 employees.
Well okay, but the numbers for the SD market in general don't sup****t
her results.
>
> I agree that the real estate market in the SoCal backcountry has
> suffered somewhat from the rise in commute prices. But if there was
> no reasonably-priced available real estate "inside" the backcountry
> (as there hadn't been for some time previous) then the fuel prices
> wouldn't have been able to affect the real estate market for the
> backcountry.
I wasn't or should I say I didn't take the time to look at all regions
in the county, but was interested in the overall picture. Some
zip/postal codes are up, Golden Hill and the area around SD State
University are up 10% for instance. The hardest hit area I found was
Del Mar which experienced a drop in the price of a median house price
from 1.7 to 1.2 million USDs in the period June 2005 - June 2006. Poor
babies!! One area of real weakness is the condo market because the
inventory of such properties is flooded with condo conversions. Also
the million dollar + condo high rise units sales are very soft and
you'll notice that for the first time in a while the number of cranes
on the downtown skyline has fallen below the dozen or so that have been
visible at any given moment for several years. Still all in all the
market has only fallen about 7% in a year and this figure is skewed
somewhat by all of the standing vacant condos. Some experts in the
field feel the market has bottomed, while others think that a gentle
downward trend will continue for the rest of the year and right through
2007.
The real reason that the real estate market isn't about to take a
serious crash is:
1. People keep flooding into California and I don't know where they
get the money to buy, but they do.
2. the FED raised the federal fund interest rate for a whole bunch of
sessions and this put the brakes on the market.......but......the FED
has held the line on these hikes recently and did so again today for
the third straight session.
3. The DOW and the other markets keep going up and the DOW set a new
record today of 12,134.68.
Real estate crashes are generally accompanied by recession with high
unemployment. That just ain't happening.
>
> An additional anecdotal evidence ... just last evening we heard the
> tail end of an ad for condos in La Jolla starting at $2 Grand. If
> anyone had asked me two minutes earlier, I'd have guessed that the
> meanest, poorest condo in La Jolla would have been going for $6 Grand.
> And La Jolla is in the midst ... not the backcountry.
Well there you go.
>
>
> Odd - "glad our investment is small enough that no amount of c'in or
> b'in will ruin us" girl
Not to worry. Property owner****p is this area is pretty safe long
term.
Michael
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