Michael wrote:
> joseph.hutcheon@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
wrote:
>
>>Michael wrote:
>>
>>>kd***ton@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
wrote:
>>>
>>>Yup, CA real estate is nuts indeed I too feel it's a pretty lousy deal
>>>for young people starting out who are doomed to renting because of the
>>>high cost of owning property. Of course back country property is
>>>generally cheaper, but still no bargain and the cost of fuel being what
>>>it is that's a tough go as well.
>>
>>The UK press has run several re****ts about how the US real estate
>>business is cra****ng and burning, house prices plummeting etc.
>>Presumably this is just newspaper hype?
>
>
> I think it's more correct to say that at least in SoCal the market has
> flattened out and and making a gentle downward correction. Since many
> continue to want to come to where the sun ****nes most of the time, I
> don't look for the market to really make any hard landings. In fact, a
> slight drop in mortgage interest rates caused housing starts to
> increase modestly last month.
>
The way I heard it, the Florida house market is cra****ng and burning -
that's the part of the US that UK buyers are most exposed to. I could
believe that some UK journalists extrapolated Florida -> US. It's the
same thing, no? [1]
>>Such a house price crash in the UK would certainly the only way my
>>children would be able to afford to buy property!
>
> Right, that's a sad truth. Although my son has a very good job, the
> best he can manage ATM is a rather large mobile home/carvan. Of course
> a really sharp crash would have negative consequences for the economy
> since real estate is such a major market component. How about all
> those folks left holding the bag who bought high and financed with
> negative amortization loans who'll just walk away and default on these
> contracts? Crash of 29 revisited? Some of the real doomsayers paint a
> similarly dire picture, but I don't feel that's really in the cards,
> IMHO.
I agree, it doesn't look like another big crash in my crystal ball at
the moment. After a couple of years of going sideways, I hear rumours
that the UK market is picking up again. Possibly the latest banking
initiatives (mortgages that can be shared between up to 4 individuals)
have contributed to this phenomenon.
Although of course, I'm not a qualified soothsayer, and some pundits
predict a 50-60 year cycle between big crashes (just long enough that
everyone's forgotten), so YMMV.
-Sazz
[1] Ooo, an op****tunity for revenge on the Sweden/Switzerland
Vienna/Venice sagas.
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