The Odd Stray wrote:
> On 20 Oct 2006 12:10:50 -0700, "Michael" <spoonermichael@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
>
> wrote:
>
> >
> >joseph.hutcheon@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
wrote:
>
> >> The UK press has run several re****ts about how the US real estate
> >> business is cra****ng and burning, house prices plummeting etc.
> >> Presumably this is just newspaper hype?
> >
> >I think it's more correct to say that at least in SoCal the market has
> >flattened out and and making a gentle downward correction. Since many
> >continue to want to come to where the sun ****nes most of the time, I
> >don't look for the market to really make any hard landings. In fact, a
> >slight drop in mortgage interest rates caused housing starts to
> >increase modestly last month.
> >>
> >> Such a house price crash in the UK would certainly the only way my
> >> children would be able to afford to buy property!
> >
> >Right, that's a sad truth. Although my son has a very good job, the
> >best he can manage ATM is a rather large mobile home/carvan. Of course
> >a really sharp crash would have negative consequences for the economy
> >since real estate is such a major market component. How about all
> >those folks left holding the bag who bought high and financed with
> >negative amortization loans who'll just walk away and default on these
> >contracts? Crash of 29 revisited? Some of the real doomsayers paint a
> >similarly dire picture, but I don't feel that's really in the cards,
> >IMHO.
>
>
> Unfortunately, I have anecdotal contradiction.
>
> SimonP and I have recently thought that having a Piece 'O Land of our
> own, for weekend camping purposes, would be both fun and a good
> investment. So we talked to a realtor in the northeast outskirts of
> Sandy Eggo (Ramona, to be specific).
>
> She gave us good advice for our Land search. But, relevant to this
> discussion, she said that this year she has dealt with 2 (two) sales.
> And last year it was 40,000 (forty thousand).
>
> In SoCal, it's cra****n' and burning' The homeowners just haven't yet
> found out :-(
Frankly I don't believe current sales in the SD backcountry are
terribly relevant to the SD real estate picture in the main and
represent only a fraction of total sales anyway.. Skyrocketing oil
prices have sparked a dramatic downturn in sales of homes where
prospective homeowners face having a long and therefore very expensive
commute. OTOH with the current glut of oil worldwide and corresponding
falling fuel prices it is possible that the market may recover somewhat
in the sticks, depending on how low fuel prices remain relatively low.
Typically country property is the last to recover from even a minor
funk in the housing market. So what I'm saying is that with the current
gentle drop-off in the SD urban housing prices, since it's much worse
in the backcountry, now is FS the time to buy so go for it!
Or, is this person you talked to referring to two vs. 40 K sales in the
market in general? If so these sales figures sound a bit, or should I
say massively overstated. Two people in my rather small office alone
have sold their homes in the past month or so, soooooooooo I dunno?
Guess I need to do my own research. Could a single person really deal
with 40K real estate transactions even in a year? Hmmmm?
Michael
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